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1 个「碳积分」3000 元,新造车如何瓜分 100 亿「碳市场」******摘要

「双积分」制度让传统车企亏多少?新能源车企赚多少?

最近,理想发布改款升级版理想 One 时候宣布,公司自动驾驶软件免费提供消费者,不会用软件赚钱。CEO 李想在微博也说,理想汽车所有自动驾驶完全标配免费,「我们自研的自动驾驶系统(标配 508Tops 算力和激光雷达)明年完全可以和华为、特斯拉正面较量」。

另一方面,此前发布财报的小鹏则公布,通过自动驾驶软件获得了超过 8000 万元的营收。新造车公司大都有个「苹果梦」,除了硬件,是否要用软件赚钱目前出现了两派。

事实上,除了卖软件,新能源车还有另一个极具潜力的赚钱项目,比软件能赚得多得多,亟待被挖掘。

根据财报,只造电动车的特斯拉,2020 年通过碳积分交易直接获得近 16 亿美元的收入,是卖车净利润的 2 倍,而去掉这 16 亿美元,特斯拉财报账目上可还是在亏本的。中国造车新势力蔚来的财报中卖「碳积分」获得的上亿元收入,也为人津津乐道。

照眼下的形势,这些手握新能源积分的车企更有底气了。

5 月 24 日,工信息部发布《乘用车企业平均燃料消耗量与新能源汽车积分并行管理实施情况年度报告(2021)》。这份 2020 年度中国乘用车 138 家车企「双积分成绩单」显示,燃料消耗量负积分达 666 万,新能源正积分为 328 万分,「双积分」仍存在-338 万分的缺口。

兴业证券发布的研报显示,当前新能源积分交易价格已从最初的 300 元-500 元/分,上涨至 2500 元-3000 元/分,最大涨幅达 9 倍。以平均每分 1500 元计算,2020 年新能源汽车正积分 328 万分,共有近 50 亿元的市场,加上 338 万积分缺口,共存在 100 亿元的市场。

积分紧俏,价格看涨,不少新能源车企看准了这块收入,甚至开始「囤分」不卖。

双积分制度让天平倾斜


我国的新能源汽车积分管理制度,效仿美国加州提出的「零排放汽车 (ZEV) 计划」,实行新能源汽车「双积分」制度。生产新能源车积正分,燃油车积负分,各类车积多少分有明确标准,以一年为限,车企的积分 = 平均燃油消耗量负积分 + 新能源汽车正积分。

负积分可以与正积分之间进行交易,抵偿,转让等。根据规定,如果车企没有满足新能源的积分要求,将会受到暂停高油耗产品申报、暂停高油耗产品生产等处罚。而油耗积分不达标的车企,可以通过其自身产生的新能源汽车正积分抵消、关联企业间转让、购买新能源汽车正积分等方式抵偿归零。

而不能抵偿归零的企业,需向工信部提交产品调整计划,设置达标期限。在其负积分抵偿归零前,对油耗不达标产品,不予列入车型公告,也就意味着不能对外销售。

双积分政策从 2018 年开始实施,这两三年下来,就让不少传统车企的钱流向了新势力车企的口袋中。

然而对于传统车企的这份压力还在不断加码,积分的价值还在每年以数倍速度上涨,实实在在体现在了传统燃油车企和新能源车企的账目上。

「成绩单」显示,在国内共产生 420 万分新能源正积分,92 万新能源负积分,1057 万燃料消耗量负积分,391 万燃料消耗量正积分。单项正负积分相抵后,燃料消耗量负积分达 666 万,新能源正积分为 328 万分,「双积分」仍存在-338 万分的缺口。

这 338 万积分的供不应求,导致的积分价格上涨,就变成了传统车企的痛苦和新能源车企的快乐。

传统车企压力与日俱增

双积分的政策一年比一年严格 2016 年「双积分」政策颁布后,给了传统车企两年的缓冲期,并不考核新能源汽车的比例要求。2018 年 4 月 1 日起,「双积分」政策正式实施,2018 年至 2020 年,要求喜能能源汽车占比 8%、10%、12%。2021~2023 年三个年度,这一比例分别为 14%、16%、18%。

与此同时,从今年 7 月 1 日起,《乘用车燃料消耗量限值》强制性国家标准将实施,综合油耗测试标准将从 NEDC 转为 WLTC,这意味着,燃油车平均油耗的达标门槛将提升,传统燃油车的降耗压力将进一步提升。

然而,传统燃油车企业目前普遍偏科严重。从车企积分缺口来看,吉利集团排名第一,共有 -134 万的积分缺口,其次是长安集团(含自主、长安福特和长安马自达),积分缺口为 -133 万,一汽 - 大众以 -132 万的积分缺口位居第三。燃油车的生产还是这几家传统车企最主要业务,新能源汽车生产的尝试还在进行中。

「双积分」给传统车企带来的亏损压力体现在账面上。长安汽车董事长朱华荣年初曾大吐苦水,受新的双积分政策影响,2020 年六大汽车集团产生的双积分均为负值,且新能源积分涨价,车企普遍增亏。以长安集团为例,2020 年因双积分造成的单车减利约 4000 元。而从 2020 年的财报来看,长安汽车单车净利润仅为 1600 元。

但是长远来看,燃油车会逐步转型新能源车已经没有疑问了。已有欧洲车企宣布了 2030 年前,将完成全系车型纯电化布局。

国内不少车企选择了合并的方式来缓解积分压力,以及合资车企以集团内部转让获得积分平衡。如上汽大众和上汽通用可以从上汽集团的自主品牌获得积分,广汽本田则从广汽集团的广汽埃安获得,北京现代从北汽新能源处获得。

但一些传统车企的新能源布局仍然较小,市场反馈也并没有占到一席之地,能提供的积分也并不足够。比如对于一汽大众、东风集团等企业,新能源汽车规模仍比较小。

在今年 4 月份,有消息称一汽 - 大众向特斯拉采购积分。高积分缺口让大众确实需要购买大量的积分,填补生产燃油车而产生的负积分,即便大众在今年已经开始走向电动。

另外,近年来国家也逐步收紧新能源汽车的生产资质,正积分的供不应求对传统车企来说,可不是什么好事。

新能源车企就指望「卖碳积分」了

不过积分的一路看涨,对新能源车企来说,可是能弥补亏损甚至扭亏为盈的好事。

在公布积分情况的 138 家车企中,「双积分」超过 10 万分的车企有 11 家,包括特斯拉、比亚迪等新能源车企;负积分企业共有 71 家,占比达六成,成为「双积分」的「买分」大户。

「成绩单「显示,特斯拉以超过 86 万的新能源汽车正积分,成为去年获得新能源汽车正积分最多的乘用车企,比亚迪和上汽通用五菱分列第二和第三位。

按照 3000 元/分的交易价格换算,特斯拉 2020 年所获得的 86.03 万新能源积分,价值高达 25.8 亿元;比亚迪、上汽通用五菱所拥有的积分价值也分别高达 22.62 亿元、13.2 亿元。

蔚来、小鹏、威马、理想 4 家造车新势力如果把积分全部出手,可分别获得 6 亿元、3.3 亿元、3 亿元、2.1 亿元的积分交易收入。

不过积分价格有市场浮动。中国国工商联汽车经销商商会常务会长、新能源汽车委员会会长李金勇认为,积分交易价格仍然会上涨,今年年底可能将突破 5000 元。但也有行业人士表示,积分价格暂不会超过 3000 元。

目前,整车销售仍是新能源汽车的主要盈利模式,但当前行业规模较小,企业投入大,产出低于预期,即使销售积分获益,也挡不住新能源车企的亏损。长安汽车董事长朱华荣、比亚迪董事长王传福都曾表示,希望建立积分池,增强双积分价格的可预见性,平抑价格波动,稳定产业各方的经营预期。

说到底,车企的核心竞争力还是在于产品,新能源积分制度作为鼓励车企转型的激励政策,也将和前些年的补贴一样在完成使命后退坡。在市场竞争越来越完善的情况下,出售新能源汽车积分并不是一个车企长久的生意。

「双积分」带来的压力无疑从底层上,迫使众多传统车企必须进行生产结构的转型。购买积分仅仅是「缓兵之计」,能自己生产新能源汽车「卖分」挣钱,谁也不想「买分」度日。

「双积分」政策促进汽车市场新能源转型的目的,在传统车企和新势力共同「逐分」向前的当下,已经初见成效。


责任编辑:靖宇

题图来源:视觉中国

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Melnikova wins women's individual all******

KITAKYUSHU, Japan, Oct. 21 (Xinhua) -- Angelina Melnikova of the Russian Gymnastics Federation claimed the women's all-around title at the World Championships here on Thursday.

The 21-year-old Melnikova, competing in her fourth worlds, was second behind American Kyala di Cello after the vault competition, their first event. But she took the lead from the second event and never looked back, winning the first title of the tournament with a total of 56.632 points.

"I am very happy to win the title. I am the first Russian to win the world all-around title in 11 years, so this means a lot to me," said Melnikova, who was the bronze winner at the 2019 worlds.

Leanne Wong of the United States took the silver with 56.340 points and Di Cellos finished third with 54.566.

Melnikova was a member of the winning team of Russian Olympic Committee at the Tokyo Olympic Games. She also took two bronze medals from the all-around and floor events in Tokyo.

"After the Tokyo Olympic Games, I felt I still have strength left, so I decided to come to the World Championships," she said. "Maybe next year, I will take a break."

Melnikova's fellow Olympic team champion Urazova Vladislava finished fourth with 53.598 points.

China's Wei Xiaoyuan, the National Games all-around champion in September, fell off the uneven bars and settled for the sixth.

The 17-year-old Wei said she was a little nervous at her first international competition, but that she has learned a lot from her rivals.

"I believe I can do better in the uneven bars final the day after tomorrow," Wei said.

The men's all-around final will be held on Friday. Enditem

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Shanghai holds Beijing Winter Olympics******

SHANGHAI, Dec. 15 (Xinhua) -- An exhibition centering on the Beijing Winter Olympics opened at the Shanghai Sports Museum on Wednesday to mark 50 days until the opening of the Games.。

At the ceremony, an Olympic-themed jade artwork was gifted to the museum as one of the exhibits. A group of students from East China University of Political Science and Law became the first batch of visitors.。

A total of 116 exhibits illustrate Winter Olympic events and the Beijing 2022 competition zones. A genuine bobsleigh has been transported from the Yanqing competition zone to the exhibition.。

"The development of snow sports in Shanghai will follow two steps. We encourage people to try on simulators first and then gradually get used to the natural environment," said Yan Jiadong, chairman of the Shanghai Ice & Snow Sports Association.。

As of October 2021, Shanghai had 13 ice rinks, 34 indoor ski resorts and three curling venues of eight sheets, with various winter sports fields in 13 districts. Enditem。

Spanish snowboard coach optimistic visit to China helps preparation for Beijing 2022******

MADRID, Dec. 3 (Xinhua) -- Alex Martin, coach of Spain's snowboard cross (SBX) team for the Beijing Olympic Winter Games in February 2022, told Xinhua that although Spain will have a "small" team in Beijing, they have high hopes of coming back home with a medal.。

SBX sees six racers compete on a course which tests their skill and at times their ability to keep out of trouble, in a sport where the slightest loss of concentration can send you tumbling.。

"Talent, technique and tactics is the formula that we have been using in training with all our athletes in the snowboard cross team in the Royal Spanish Federation of Winter Sports (RFEDI)," Martin told Xinhua.。

He highlighted Lucas Eguibar, who is the reigning world champion, and Alvaro Romero, as Spain's two strongest medal hopes, along with Regino Hernandez, who claimed the bronze medal in the PyeongChang Winter Games in 2018.。

Martin has a degree in Physical Fitness science and a Master's degree in High Performance and has been coaching for over 20 years. He began working for the Spanish Federation in 2017 and is currently the technical director for snowboard at the RFEDI and responsible for a team, which has achieved a high level of success.。

The Spanish team recently returned from China after participating in the test event on the Olympic Games circuit, and experience Martin described as "different and very tiring."

"It was complicated," he explained. "Going to international events at the moment requires a double effort because of the care you have to take and the sanitary controls in place because of the pandemic. Maybe that was the hardest thing for our athletes in their first contact with China."

However, despite the difficulty the coach was content with the experience.。

"We learned an important lesson and after this experience, we are now better prepared to show that with a lot of effort, we are able to adapt to a global situation that needs both a physical and a mental effort," he concluded, adding that events such as the Winter Olympics should act as a motivation for everyone to work together to try to end the pandemic. Enditem。

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